Investment in InfrastructureThe Eleventh Plan (2007-08 to 2011-12) targets a sustainable growth rate of 9% with emphasis on a broad and inclusive approach that improves the quality of life and reduces disparities between regions and communities. There is consensus that infrastructure inadequacies would constitute a significant barrier to realizing this development potential. To overcome this constraint, an ambitious infrastructure investment program is being developed for the Eleventh Plan, involving both the public and private sectors. The program ensures strengthening and consolidation of recent infrastructure-related initiatives, such as the Bharat Nirman for building rural infrastructure, as well as sectoral initiatives, such as the National Highway Development Program (NHDP), the Airport Financing Scheme and the National Maritime Development Mission and the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM). Infrastructure investment projections were made in two ways. First, rough estimates of top-down (“order of magnitude”) investment were derived from government GDP growth targets and estimates of the likely evolution of the share of gross capital formation (GCF) in infrastructure as a proportion to gross GDP. Domestic product (GDP) consistent with these objectives. Secondly, a bottom-up exercise was undertaken based on a detailed analysis of past trends in combination with strategic and financial plans in the pipeline for various infrastructure sectors. GCF projection based on growth targets India's GDP is expected to grow at an average rate of 9 per cent annually over the Plan. Based on the levels of infrastructure investment found in several analyzes across countries in fast-growing Asian economies, GCF in infrastructure may need to accelerate to around 11% by the final year of the Eleventh Plan to achieve the goal of annual GDP growth of 9% percent. Realistically, however, starting from a level below 5% of GDP observed in 2004-2005, such a rapid change in the structure of investment may not be feasible. Furthermore, it may not be a necessary condition to achieve 9% growth as many East Asian countries may have invested more than necessary and while around 10% investment is desirable, India could try to achieve it over a longer period long. Taking these factors into account, a top-down GCF target in infrastructure of around 9% of GDP by the end of the Eleventh Plan seems reasonable. Total infrastructure GCF as a percentage of GDP is assumed to increase from 5.
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