IndexAbstractIntroductionNew Hampshire Climate Action Plan BackgroundClimate Action Plan Economic OpportunitiesImpact of Climate Change on winter tourism in New HampshirePreparing for climate change in New Hampshire ski areasModeling climate change in ski areasVulnerability and vitality of the tourism economy winterConclusionAbstractIn this research paper, I will delve into the goals of the New Hampshire Climate Action Plan and whether or not they will be sufficient to help reduce the impacts of climate change on New Hampshire's winter tourism sector Hampshire Ski Regions. I use research conducted by climate scientists to analyze the potential impacts of climate change on winter ski areas, as well as economic impacts, on winter tourism in relation to the Climate Action Plan. Say no to plagiarism. Get a tailor-made essay on "Why Violent Video Games Shouldn't Be Banned"? Get an original essay IntroductionClimate change is a global and local crisis, and if immediate action is not taken, the damage may be irreversible. In the northeastern region of the United States, and more specifically in New Hampshire, winter tourism represents a major portion of state revenue, and with the release of the New Hampshire Climate Action Plan in 2009, the state hopes to combat climate change while remaining economically sound. “New Hampshire has set an ambitious goal to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050, while spurring economic development, creating jobs, improving energy security and preserving quality of life of New Hampshire residents” (Wake, et al., 2012 ). Given that winter tourism is a major driver of New Hampshire's revenue and that the imminent threat of climate change may create irreversible damage to these ski resorts, the goals of the New Hampshire Climate Action Plan will be sufficient to help reduce risk? impacts of climate change on these winter ski areas? The remainder of this document will outline the goals of the Climate Action Plan, the impact of climate change on New Hampshire's ski areas, and its effect on New Hampshire's economy. Background to the New Hampshire Climate Action PlanThe New Hampshire Climate Action Plan, released in 2009, proposes a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050, while maintaining feasibility New Hampshire economy (Wake et al., 2012). The plan, created by leaders of the state's business community, members of government, nonprofit organizations and academics (otherwise known as the Climate Action Plan “task force”), emphasizes the need to “reduce emissions from transportation , from electricity production, buildings and ecosystems further developing the economy” (Wake et al., 2012). The Climate Action Plan is also related to the Obama administration's Clean Power Plan due to New Hampshire's involvement in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). In the Climate Action Plan, the task force recommends that the state continue to remain involved in the RGGI and work to strengthen the program. Regarding the Clean Power Plan, the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services is exploring ways in which state participation in RGGI can help meet Clean Power Plan requirements (Burack, personal communication, 2016). The task force behind the Climate Action Planrecognizes the fact that New Hampshire must significantly reduce emissions and begin to adapt to a rapidly changing climate (Skoglund, personal communication, 2016). Cameron Wake (personal communication, 2016), explained, “The state is currently in the early stages of a very long journey and not many companies are very far along in terms of the impacts of climate change,” however the Plan's goals and recommendations climate action plans are not tied to any state statute, meaning there is no obligation for a state body to carry out the plan (Skoglund, personal communication, 2016). However, as a result of the very inclusive and comprehensive way in which the plan was created, there have been several stakeholder groups, New Hampshire legislators, and state agencies who are willingly carrying forward many of the Climate Action Plan's recommendations , as well as taking part in further efforts inspired by the plan (Skoglund, personal communication, 2016). The New Hampshire Climate Action Plan released its last baseline report in 2012, and it is important to note that the state is starting to show steady signs of progress toward the goals outlined in the Climate Action Plan. The Economic Opportunities of the Climate Action Plan Of course, there are costs that arise from climate change policies but, according to the summary of the New Hampshire Climate Action Plan (2009), a huge part of these costs will only be used in the initial stages of the Climate Action Plan). The New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (2009) states that over time these costs will decrease and policies implemented will create net economic benefits. The Climate Plan briefly outlines 10 strategies to reduce emissions while remaining economically feasible. The 10 strategies are as follows:“1. Maximize energy efficiency in buildings, 2. Increase renewable and low-carbon resources in a long-term sustainable way, 3. Support regional and national actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, 4. Reduce vehicle emissions through actions state governments, 5. Encourage appropriate land use patterns that reduce vehicle miles traveled, 6. Reduce vehicle miles traveled through an integrated multimodal transportation system, 7. Protect natural resources (land, water, and wildlife) for keep the amount of carbon fixed or sequestered, 8. Lead by example in government operations, 9. Plan how to address current and potential impacts of climate change, 10. Develop an integrated program of education, awareness and workforce training” ( 2009). In order to achieve the net economic benefits of the Climate Action Plan, New Hampshire must prioritize low-cost greenhouse gas emission reduction policies over any other policies, and the state must treat these costs as investments long-term plan for energy reduction (“Overview of the New Hampshire Climate Action Plan,” 2009) . The types of benefits that come from reducing greenhouse gas emissions are considered co-benefits, or localized benefits from regional abatement, just as the Climate Action Plan aims to do in New Hampshire's ski areas. Impact of Climate Change on New Hampshire Winter Tourism Winter tourism represents a large portion of New Hampshire's state revenue, and climate change can have a huge impact on this very important sector of the state's economy. The ski industry in New Hampshire is extremely dependent on long, active winter weather and any kind ofchanging these weather patterns can completely destroy ski area operations (Beaudin & Huang, 2014). Winter tourism and outdoor winter recreation are a crucial economic driver for New Hampshire's northern counties, and during the winter quarter (December through March) “nearly 40 percent of our state's total visitor spending goes to the North Country. Nearly 80% of this amount is spent on outdoor recreation related to snow and cold: skiing, ice fishing and snowmobiling. Winter visitors spend nearly 20% more per visitor per day than average” (Wake & Burakowski, 2006). It stands to reason that a cold, snow-filled winter will generate more visitors and economic activity than a warm, snow-free winter. Cameron Wake and Elizabeth Burakowski (2006) underline this aspect in their research also stating that a warm winter will result in approximately 3,000 fewer jobs (4% of winter employment in Northern countries). They also claim that "33 percent fewer skiers visit New Hampshire in low-snow years than in high-snow years" and that downhill ski ticket sales drop by 15 percent, or about $12 million in winters hot (2006). Another major revenue loss caused by warm winters is that of the snowmobile industry. Snowmobile registration fees are down about 30%, which equates to a loss of a million dollars, and that, combined with the total reduction in ski pass and ice fishing license registration fees , which fell overall by 14%, means there was a loss of more than $13 million during warm winters (Wake & Burakowski, 2006). In addition to these numbers, winter temperatures are expected to rise another six to ten degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century if we continue to live in a high-emissions environment. , which means less snowfall, more winter rain, and greater snowmelt, resulting in a 25 to 50 percent reduction in the typical length of a snow season (Burakowski & Magnusson, 2012). “The energy path we choose today will largely determine whether or not New Hampshire's climate becomes remarkably similar to that of the southern United States” (Wake & Burakowski, 2006) and the Climate Action Plan contains guidelines and goals to prepare for and potentially reduce the impacts of climate change on these ski areasPreparing for climate change in New Hampshire ski areasWinter weather and cold weather are key elements in promoting the tourism experience, increasing tourism demand and enjoyment and at the same time create successful tourism operations. These operations are largely dependent on water supplies, energy costs, insurance costs and environmental and natural resources that are crucial to the winter tourism industry (e.g. glaciers, biodiversity, water levels and snow levels) , leaving this typically economically prosperous sector very sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. global warming and the impacts of climate change, (Dawson & Scott, 2013). “Bicknell and McManus (2006) describe the ski industry as a 'canary in the coal mine,' suggesting that the first signs of climate change for any tourism sector are being observed directly within the ski industry,” ( Dawson & Scott, 2013). It is not a new concept for the ski industry to address climate change and its instability regarding weather and seasonal temperatures. The ski industries have long been adapting to decreasing snowfalland rising temperatures by investing in research and development with the goal of preserving and continuing a productive snow season, and therefore the ski season (Scott, 2005). A key investment that the ski industry had no choice was the technological adaptation of snowmaking systems and this was one of the most significant factors and investments in ensuring that these ski areas remained economically viable. “A number of other adaptation strategies have become popular, including building ski resorts at higher altitudes to account for lower temperatures at altitude, investing in all-season resorts, offering non-snow-based activities and creating an après-ski atmosphere” ( Dawson and Scott, 2013 ). Unfortunately, even with investments in snowmaking technology and use, ski areas are still in an extremely high risk situation in addressing the impacts of climate change (Dawson & Scott, 2013), which is why it is important overemphasize the objectives, strategies and implementation of the Climate Action Plan to prepare for and potentially significantly reduce the harmful impacts of climate change on these ski areas. Modeling Climate Change in Ski AreasResearchers Jackie Dawson and Daniel Scott examine the impacts of climate change on ski area operations in the Northeast and New Hampshire and address it using a case study. Before explaining their research and the methods behind it, they state: “The implications of climate change have been shown to vary substantially by market segment and geographic region and will undoubtedly depend on the impacts experienced by competitors. Understanding how the entire ski market might transform, and can be affected by changes in individual ski areas, can help ski resort managers and municipal, state and federal decision makers establish sustainable development plans and future management strategies,” ( 2013). Their research approach is carried out by examining all 103 ski areas in the Northeast and the methodologies applied in the case study take into account the available snowmaking technologies. Using a generic range rate to allow projections of temperature change relative to the elevation of each ski area, this allows researchers to be able to calculate conclusions about which ski areas are more at risk of climate change than others using range rates different weather with different climate change situations. The annual temperature in the Northeast has increased by 0.14 degrees Fahrenheit every decade since 1900, however in the years between 1970 and 2002, the Northeast experienced temperatures above the average rate and experienced an increase of 0 .5 degrees Fahrenheit every decade (Dawson & Scott, 2013). The future climate change scenarios and related reference period (1961–1990) for this case study were derived from the above climate data, which allowed Dawson and Scott (2013) to derive several climate change scenarios for three different future time periods (2010-2013). 39, 2040-69, 2070-99). There are three very important factors to take into account when projecting the impact of climate change in this study and they are "the length of the season, the probability of being operational during the economically important Christmas-New Year period and snowmaking requirements. From these factors an economic feasibility estimate is conducted for each of the ski areas modeled” (Dawson & Scott, 2013). Regarding the length of the season, the impact of climate change variesmore for some ski areas than others, based primarily on altitude. The results show that, using the baseline and future projections, ski areas with higher elevations, especially in New Hampshire and Vermont, will have longer seasons under all climate change situations tested compared to ski areas with higher elevations. low in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Maine (Dawson & Scott, 2013). Ski area operations are crucial during the holiday season (December 23 to January 3), as up to 20% of winter tourism occurs during that holiday period (NSAA, 2005). Although it is still difficult for ski areas to remain 100% operational during that time period because it is the start of the ski season, projections tested by Dawson and Scott (2013) show that they remain more or less constant in each time period, with only some fluctuations in the period 2010-39. Finally, snowmaking requirements represent a crucial investment for ski areas to remain open and economically viable. Dawson and Scott (2013) found that the amount of snow needed to maintain such ski areas will increase under all climate change scenarios tested for each time period for each of 103 ski areas. However, if temperatures continue to rise at the current rate, snowmaking technology could suffer due to the 23-degree Fahrenheit minimum temperature at which machines operate. If a ski area is located in a lower region, these higher temperatures could have a major impact on the rate at which snowmaking is used. Vulnerability and Viability of the Winter Tourism Economy The most crucial factor to consider in the winter tourism economy with regards to its vulnerability and vitality is the demand-side response of the skiers themselves and their response to snow conditions and potential closure of particular ski areas (Dawson & Scott, 2013). In research by Dawson and Scott (2013), they found that, using an analogous and climate change modeling method, the Northeast shows an 11-12% decrease during the period 2040-69, using a scenario of medium and high emissions. This is not as serious as one would expect, but the state must also take into account individuals' preparedness to travel longer distances to continue skiing if the local ski area has been closed due to climate change impacts. Dawson and Scott (2013) interviewed 570 skiers in the Northeast and concluded that an individual would not travel more than three hours per day trip and also would not travel more than five hours (one way) for a weekend trip with the aim to ski in an operational ski area. This will only get worse if policies like the Climate Action Plan are not implemented because individuals living in lower states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, southern Maine, and southern New Hampshire will not be willing to travel such distances long towards the few remaining ski regions. in northern New Hampshire and Vermont. However, there is a downside to this expected travel distance for those willing to travel long distances to continue skiing: increased vehicle emissions due to this long-distance transportation, which will only increase the implications predicted climate change (Dawson & Scott, 2013). Figure one (attached) is a decision flow diagram created by Dawson and Scott (2013) that will be useful for ski area managers to prepare and conclude some type of decision strategies.